This project, involving scientists in the U.S., Canada, Russia, Sweden, Germany, and Japan, will document changes in large-scale disturbances (permafrost thaw, fire, insect outbreaks, and forest harvest) occurring throughout the Arctic. We focus especially on the effects of disturbance on future climate, ecosystem change, and the benefits that society receives from ecosystems.

The project focuses on collecting currently available information on fire and other disturbances at high latitudes to learn how these disturbances have changed in response to past climate variations and to project, using climate models, how they may change in the future. We will link these past and future patterns of change in climate and disturbance to some of the major ecological and social changes, such as changes in sea ice distribution, changes in abundance of wildlife and other natural resources, and changes in the risk of future disturbance such as fire and coastal erosion. From these we will provide information that help policy makers plan for future in which both climate and disturbance regime will be different than they are today.